Economic Activity, Fiscal Space and Types of COVID-19 Containment Measures

This paper argues that the type of COVID-19 containment measures affects the trade-offs between infection cases, economic activity and sovereign risk. Using local projection methods and a year and a half of high-frequency daily data covering 44 advanced and emerging economies, we find that smart (e.g. testing) as opposed to physical (e.g. lockdown) measures appear to be best placed to tackle these trade-offs. Initial conditions also matter whereby containment measures can be less disruptive when public health response time is fast and public debt is low. We also construct a database of daily fiscal announcements for Euro area countries, and find that sovereign risk is improved under a combination of large support packages and smart measures.

Comparison of hemoglobin level and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as prognostic markers in patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Anemia can negatively affect the outcome of many diseases, including infections and inflammatory conditions. AIM: To compare the prognostic value of hemoglobin level and the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for prediction of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, clinical data from patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were collected from hospital records from 10 April 2020 to 30 July 2020. RESULTS: The proportions of patients with mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 differed significantly in association with hemoglobin levels, neutrophil counts, lymphocyte counts, NLR, and total leukocyte counts. Patients with severe COVID-19 had significantly lower hemoglobin levels than those with moderate or mild COVID-19. There were statistically significant negative associations between hemoglobin and D-dimer, age, and creatinine. The optimal hemoglobin cut-off value for prediction of disease severity was 11.6 g/dL. Using this cut-off value, hemoglobin had higher negative predictive value and sensitivity than NLR (92.4% and 51.3%, respectively). The specificity of hemoglobin as a prognostic marker was 79.3%. CONCLUSION: Both NLR and hemoglobin level are of prognostic value for predicting severity of COVID-19. However, hemoglobin level displayed higher sensitivity than NLR. Hemoglobin level should be assessed upon admission in all patients and closely monitored throughout the disease course.